Optimistic baseline
A source documents that the cost or schedule approved at sanction understated what similar work required, omitted known risks, or rested on assumptions later found untested.
Documented problems: 13
Fourteen issue types reviewed across the report’s 30 projects. Explore documented problems, constructive partnerships, and remaining gaps.
The 30 projects were chosen for what they can teach. The report groups 14 issue types into 10 patterns. These frequencies describe the selected projects, rather than all Canadian megaprojects.
The matrix records 179 documented problems and four constructive partnerships, excluded from problem totals. Thirty cells remain unresolved. No qualifying evidence does not prove that a problem never occurred.
CODE PRESENCE ≠ SINGLE-CAUSE ATTRIBUTION
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A source documents that the cost or schedule approved at sanction understated what similar work required, omitted known risks, or rested on assumptions later found untested.
A source documents contractor productivity well below the tender or plan, or commitments on dates and sequences that proved unachievable.
A source documents foundation, soil or buried-infrastructure conditions that differed from the baseline assumptions and affected cost, schedule or design.
A source documents rework, defects or failed inspections on structures, track, vehicles or systems.
A source attributes additional cost, productivity loss, supply-chain disruption or schedule loss to COVID-19.
A source documents consultation, accommodation, litigation or partnership with Indigenous nations shaped the project’s scope, schedule, approval or structure. Constructive partnerships are recorded separately and excluded from problem totals.
An inquiry, audit, review or peer-reviewed study documents political pressure on decisions or weak, divided or uninformed oversight, with a documented effect on the project.
A source documents a major claim, settlement, arbitration or lawsuit between owner and contractor during delivery.
A source documents a skilled-labour shortage or industrial action that delayed work.
A source documents floods, wildfires, drought, storms or extreme winter weather that disrupted construction or commissioning; ordinary seasonal conditions or future risks alone do not qualify.
A source documents signalling, control, software or integration defects that delayed commissioning or caused outages.
A source documents late delivery of materials, vehicles, cables or specialized equipment.
A source documents environmental, regulatory or permit delay, non-compliance, reversal or refusal.
A source documents owner-, regulator- or site-driven changes to scope or design after contract award.
Each count covers projects with at least one issue type in the pattern. The Indigenous rights pattern includes 13 documented problems and four constructive partnerships.
Chapter 8 proposes practices for different project stages. Their effectiveness needs to be tested on Canadian projects. This study does not establish that these recommendations will prevent the documented problems.
Procurement means choosing how the project will be delivered and selecting suppliers. Commissioning includes testing before operation. Contingency is money set aside in the budget for risks that are expected but not yet specific.
| Stage | Proposed practice | Lead |
|---|---|---|
| Before sanction | Set the baseline with an outside view and publish a range | Sponsoring government and owner board |
| Before sanction | Require independent gateway review before sanction | Treasury board or equivalent |
| Before sanction | Make no public cost commitment before a business case is complete and published | Governments and ministers |
| Before sanction | Treat consent as a design input | Owner, rights-holders and regulators |
| Procurement | Keep a capable owner in charge of integration | Owner |
| Procurement | Match the delivery model to the uncertainty | Owner and procurement agency |
| Procurement | Write remedies and incentives that act early | Owner and procurement agency |
| Delivery and commissioning | Set clear authority over changes and over the release of contingency | Owner |
| Delivery and commissioning | Fix acceptance criteria and bring the operator in early | Owner and operator |
| After completion | Publish a post-completion review | Owner and sponsoring government |
A source documents that the cost or schedule approved at sanction understated what similar work required, omitted known risks, or rested on assumptions later found untested.
Documented problems: 13
A source documents contractor productivity well below the tender or plan, or commitments on dates and sequences that proved unachievable.
Documented problems: 13
A source documents foundation, soil or buried-infrastructure conditions that differed from the baseline assumptions and affected cost, schedule or design.
Documented problems: 14
A source documents rework, defects or failed inspections on structures, track, vehicles or systems.
Documented problems: 11
A source attributes additional cost, productivity loss, supply-chain disruption or schedule loss to COVID-19.
Documented problems: 14
A source documents consultation, accommodation, litigation or partnership with Indigenous nations shaped the project’s scope, schedule, approval or structure. Constructive partnerships are recorded separately and excluded from problem totals.
Documented problems: 13 · Partnerships excluded from totals: 4
An inquiry, audit, review or peer-reviewed study documents political pressure on decisions or weak, divided or uninformed oversight, with a documented effect on the project.
Documented problems: 21
A source documents a major claim, settlement, arbitration or lawsuit between owner and contractor during delivery.
Documented problems: 15
A source documents a skilled-labour shortage or industrial action that delayed work.
Documented problems: 11
A source documents floods, wildfires, drought, storms or extreme winter weather that disrupted construction or commissioning; ordinary seasonal conditions or future risks alone do not qualify.
Documented problems: 8
A source documents signalling, control, software or integration defects that delayed commissioning or caused outages.
Documented problems: 4
A source documents late delivery of materials, vehicles, cables or specialized equipment.
Documented problems: 8
A source documents environmental, regulatory or permit delay, non-compliance, reversal or refusal.
Documented problems: 18
A source documents owner-, regulator- or site-driven changes to scope or design after contract award.
Documented problems: 16